The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In the given memorandum, the author has recommended the investment in Consolidated Industries. This proposal or recommendation is based on author's conclusion that climate forecasters predict that the cold season going to continue for a long time for several more years. The author has made here very hasty conclusion based on several unwarranted assumptions. Before going to seriously consider author's recommendation, one needs to address the weaknesses of his conclusion.
First, the author has mentioned that in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold. So, there must be other companies who already must have invested in the Consolidated Industries. These companies must have set up and developed their business in these areas. So, starting a new company and investing in Consolidated Industries may going to fail as there are already market leaders there.
Second, the author has mentioned that many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. So, the author here assumed that there won't be any new technologies like home heaters in these new homes. So, this might be a possibility that builders will add these new state of art feature considering the area and most of the people's need. So, investing in Consolidated Industries in these are might going to fail.
Lastly, the author doesn't have considered the possibility that there could be other alternatives like wood, room heaters etc. So, use of these alternatives to warm the house might reduce demand for oil for heating. So, opening a new company and investing in Consolidated Industries might not be needed or it will be unnecessary.
Thus, author's recommendation to invest in Consolidated Industries is not well thought out and is based on weak assumptions. If the factors mentioned above are not considered seriously by the author, then this recommendation going to lead to business failure.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
argument 1 -- OK
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- duplicated to argument 2
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also need to argue:
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 16 15
No. of Words: 308 350
No. of Characters: 1582 1500
No. of Different Words: 153 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.189 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.136 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.989 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 104 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 83 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 63 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 50 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 19.25 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.169 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.688 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.376 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.604 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.1 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 5, column 368, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
... the area and most of the peoples need. So, investing in Consolidated Industries i...
^^
Line 7, column 20, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: doesn't
...ht going to fail. Lastly, the author doesnt have considered the possibility that th...
^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
first, if, lastly, may, second, so, then, thus, well
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 15.0 19.6327345309 76% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 12.0 12.9520958084 93% => OK
Conjunction : 7.0 11.1786427146 63% => OK
Relative clauses : 9.0 13.6137724551 66% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 19.0 28.8173652695 66% => OK
Preposition: 38.0 55.5748502994 68% => OK
Nominalization: 6.0 16.3942115768 37% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1623.0 2260.96107784 72% => OK
No of words: 306.0 441.139720559 69% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.30392156863 5.12650576532 103% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.18244613648 4.56307096286 92% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.0204229582 2.78398813304 108% => OK
Unique words: 157.0 204.123752495 77% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.513071895425 0.468620217663 109% => OK
syllable_count: 510.3 705.55239521 72% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 6.0 8.76447105788 68% => OK
Subordination: 2.0 2.70958083832 74% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 17.0 19.7664670659 86% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 24.3361692743 57.8364921388 42% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 95.4705882353 119.503703932 80% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.0 23.324526521 77% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.05882352941 5.70786347227 54% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.135081111462 0.218282227539 62% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0525240239493 0.0743258471296 71% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0677910406893 0.0701772020484 97% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0782119615824 0.128457276422 61% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0470328356796 0.0628817314937 75% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.5 14.3799401198 87% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 44.75 48.3550499002 93% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.16 12.5979740519 104% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.83 8.32208582834 94% => OK
difficult_words: 64.0 98.500998004 65% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 9.0 12.3882235529 73% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.